U.S. demand for asphalt is forecast to advance 1.7% annually to more than
38 million tons in 2011. This is equivalent to 211 million barrels of primary asphalt, the
vast majority of which is refinery asphalt. In paving markets, demand will rebound from
a low 2006 base, reflecting some moderation in asphalt pricing from historically high
2006 levels. In roofing products, demand is expected to slow through 2011, primarily
due to weak prospects in new single family home construction. These and other trends
are presented in Asphalt, a new study from the Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-
based industry market research firm.
Paving products accounted for more than 80% of overall asphalt demand in
2006. Gains for paving products will be driven by increased federal and state spending
on highway and road construction, in part due to the implementation of the Safe,
Accountable, Flexible and Efficient Transportation Equity Act—A Legacy for Users
(SAFETEA-LU), the largest highway spending bill in US history. However, as this
program will expire in 2009, passage of its subsequent legislation will also be critical.
Consumption of asphalt in roofing and other applications is projected to expand
1.4% annually to 6.7 million tons in 2011. This represents a deceleration from
the growth posted in the 2001-2006 period, reflecting an expected decline in new single
family home construction, which will negatively impact asphalt roofing for steep slope
applications, primarily asphalt shingles. Nevertheless, strongly improving prospects for
asphalt low slope roofing products in nonresidential markets will partially offset the
weakness in new residential markets. Growth opportunities will also continue to present
themselves in maintenance and repair applications in both residential and
nonresidential markets.
Among the different types of asphalt paving products, emulsified asphalt will
benefit from the use of in-place recycling, microsurfacing and chip seal
technologies. Continuing adoption of performance-based specifications for road
projects will generate demand for polymer-modified asphalts. However, asphalt cement
will continue to be the dominant asphalt paving product.
Asphalt (published 11/2007, 307 pages) is available for $4,500 from the Freedonia
Group Inc., 767 Beta Drive, Cleveland, OH 44143-2326. For further details, please
contact Corinne Gangloff by phone 440/684-9600, fax 440/646-0484 or e-mail
[email protected]. Information may also be obtained through
www.freedoniagroup.com.
